Letter to a Friend: The Election

Dear Pete,

I told you that the American people would not put another Republican in the White House for a third term in a row. The odds were against it, especially following the gross incompetence and lack of truthfulness of the Bush Administration. Like it has happened many times before, it was time to give the other Party a chance.

Actually, I am still riding the tsunami of euphoria, which is still makng it’s way around the globe. However, I am sober enough to consider doing a post-mortem of the two campaigns, to draw a profile of why Obama proved the skeptics wrong and the polls correct. The profile of the McCain campaign should address the question, why did the tact he took fall so flat with millions of voters?

Firstly, how did Obama do it?

Timing. Obama knew that it was unlikely that the voters would return a Republican to office in 2008. They would not be in the mood to trust more Republicans on the heels of a failed administration, and John McCain had admitted he voted with Bush 90% of the time. That’s probably why he entered the race in the first place. There was a confluence of factors that encouraged Obama’s kind of candidacy. He also aligned with the Zeitgeist. In contrast, McCain had no clue, rooted as he was in his Vietnam past, the military history of his family, and his personal wealth and Life Style. Obama understood the Spirit of the Times, the hunger for a sea change in Government; the people were tired of the same old thing and partisan bickering which seemed endless and fruitless. McCain picked up on the theme of change but he never found a central, consistent, and believable argument to sell his version of change. It sounded like the retread it was.

Money. Unlike the last few elections, when the Republicans were the fat cats, this time the shoe was on the other foot, as Obama discovered that the Internet could provide the Golden Egg, to the tune of $640 million for his campaign. It made quite a difference in two critical areas, the number of paid people on the ground and the number of TV ads. It gave him an enormous advantage.

Broad Attack. The campaign sent ground troops everywhere, not just to certain important states. It paid off because he won 7 red states and made inroads into others.

Caucuses. It was an early tactic for the primaries that really worked against

Hillary Clinton. She concentrated on the big states but came up short. Many

Pundits thought Obama would have difficulty winning Pennsylvania, Ohio, and

Florida in the general election, but he won all three, plus Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, states also thought to be problematic.

Independents. This group of voters was supposed to be a gold mine for McCain but Obama ended up winning 52% of them, compared to 44% for McCain.

Other factors:

Obama won 66% of the under 30 vote. In 2000 Gore won 40+ percent of the vote. Kerry in 2004 won 54%. The young not only turned out for rallies, they turned out to vote and were a critical segment. They also look promising for the future vote.

Hispanic vote: It was 67% for Obama.

African American vote: 96% for Obama.

Educated Whites: 47%. Total white vote for Obama was 43%. McCain got 55%.

Negative factors for McCain:

Sarah Palin. Katy Couric and Tina Fey, who simply held a mirror up to her, did her in She was a very poor choice for VP. And it reflected poorly on McCain’s judgment. She was called inept and unqualified by a dozen conservative intellectuals. The McCain people are bashing her now, turning her into a scapegoat. However, the base still loves her. It’s anybody’s guess if she has a future with the G.O.P.

Negative Ads. They did not have the impact they did in previous elections. The voting population was sick of them.

Erratic Campaign. McCain and others were changing the campaign’s focus every other day. In vivid contrast, the Obama campaign was a model of consistency and discipline. From the top down they were tightly disciplined and on the same page.

The Election Left The R-Party In A Bad Way. Only the far right of the Republican Party seems in tact. They refuse to understand their defeat as a repudiation of conservative philosophy, you know, limited government, no taxes, self-reliance, pro-gun, free trade, this is a Christian country, etc.etc. If they keep that up they’ll never win another election. Most of the remnant needs an anger management class.

Moderate Republicans. They peeled off or got beat. They are a vanishing species, or, pseudo-Democrats.