March 7, 2014...Putin's Gambit

It seems rather remarkable that we are once more on the cliff of another cold war, maybe even another Cuban showdown. After the revolt in Ukraine which brought about the exit of their corrupt president and the installation of a temporary government--they plan to hold an election in May--Putin stepped in, had troops from Russia march in to both Ukraine and Crimea, called the revolt "unconstitutional" and blockaded the Ukraine Navy so they can't put out to sea. Right on script John McCain and other Republicans are up in arms over this action by "Putin the thug." They are climbing all over Obama as a weak and ineffective leader, while Obama knows damn well that in a war-weary society like ours he can't call out the troops in a situation very far from our shores, or have the money to pay for another conflict half way around the world. McCain is just blowing smoke and trying to score some brownie points with some Republicans. He has to know his call to do something is not realistic.

As I see it, Crimea is already gone and I won't be surprised if Russia reabsorbs Ukraine too. There is a plurality of ethnic Russians in Crimea and if they follow through on that referendum in 9 days the Peninsula will be back in the fold. Ukraine is a tougher call, inevitably, because rebels want nothing to do with Russia, while the Eastern portion on the state is predominately ethnic Russians. The blood and culture go deep; it can't be denied or argued away. In short, Putin can make a better argument than either the President of John Kerry, as history and tradition on on the side of Russia. In fact, Kerry's comments two days ago, about the illegality of the moves that Putin is contemplating, is laughable when you consider what we did in Iraq, our war of choice not necessity, where we intervened in a sovereign state to control Iraqi oil interests, and our long occupation of the country. Right now I wouldn't guess what the final outcome might be but I'd say Putin has the better cards to play.